How successful (or not) is the Burundi electoral process so far?
Briefing Issue #97, Tuesday, June 2, 2020
This is the online version of RegionWeek for decision-makers and young professionals, a newsletter about depth and context to Burundi and East Africa stories— written by me, Fabrice Iranzi. You can sign up for your own subscription to get concise information about game-changing events and insights straight to your inbox:
Dear Reader,
If you follow News about Burundi, during this electoral process soon or later you can get confused. In this time lag before the announcement of final results of May 20 Elections by the Constitutional Court, facts are twisted and amplified. It easy to get lost! In Today’s edition, let us look closer at how successful (or not) is the Burundi electoral process so far.
It would be a tedious task to evaluate an electoral process in a newsletter. But what can be done is to give you the keys that may help you understand and digest easily all the reports, congratulatory messages, misleading tweet from private, public and radical media outlet on the Burundi Electoral process.
Taking the 2005 electoral process as reference,( because It was dubbed “peaceful and historic” even though there were still armed groups that were still operating inside burundi and thousands of refugees in neighbouring countries) the 2020 electoral process has it strength and weaknesses.
But what should be noted beyond success (or not), are particularities especialy the maturity on the political scene.
Burundi went from political parties that once believed that boycott was a sound strategy to political parties and civil organisation that are ready to leverage their presence and network to influence the course of event nationally and Internationally.
When the main among competitors who felt that the result were not accurate decide to challenge the results in court first, rather than protesting in the streets to protest and organizing a coup, this in Burundi context should be noted as particular.
The coming days will be interesting, starting from this Thursday after the annoucement of the Constitutional Court final results.
Before you get overwhlemed, by a tsunami of tweets from #BurundiCrisis hashtag and headlines from “Genocide in Burundi” conspiracy theorist, it is important to know that in Burundi views are no longer mainly Hutu or Tutsi on the political scene.
Here are the three main views categories that are slowly taking shape since 2010. This will be useful to understand the content in media and all statements on Burundi for the next 7 years!
The Optimist view
In this category we find enthusiasts of a better Burundi, mainly conservatives and those who tag themselves as “the Silent Majority”. They are generally people who joyfully contributed when the president called for an election fundraising campaign.
They believe in the Electoral Commission team and will rarely question irregularities evoked throughout the process. A peaceful election for them means that there are no gun shooting around or other events that may prevent them and their families to work and enjoy their normal life.
They get easily irritated when their views are challenged, you won’t know what they really think because sharing views is not their priority. In this category are those who believe that the electoral process is free and fair and Burundi is heading a new era of democracy and autonomy.
The Pessimist view
People in this category live in the past, for them there is no present worth living. The future of Burundi is only safe if they are in office. They will often have good Ideas on how the country should be ruled, but they will struggle to express it clearly.
They tend to be more progressive and often change their position. They don’t trust the Electoral Commission but believe they can use events (good or bad) to influence the outcomes. They believe that the international community should play an active role in Burundi management but its hard for them to grasp the moves made by lobbies and Think-tanks nor benefit from it.
For them, the Electoral Process would have been better if only there were International Observers and International media. They don’t trust the results, and they will do whatever possible to amplify the irregularities reported during the process and tend to spread fake news to justify their position.
They adapt as events unfold, they easily criticize their own camp and tend to be rather peaceful than violent.
The Radical View
In this category, are the “ All or Nothing” Club members, the extreme of the two first categories. They are a few people with huge resources and networks. Apart from protecting their personal interests, they will rarely have a convincing political view.
They tend to exploit the weakness of opponents. They will form alliances based on their personal interest and destroy them whenever they reach their goals. They use the international community as a weapon to defend or to attack interests. They know how to use media effectively to manipulate the first two categories.
It doesn’t matter for them if the Electoral commission is Independent or not, they know way before who has the potential to win or not and they will adjust accordingly. They leverage violence and don’t hesitate to support initiatives that harm their advesaries.
They will say that the Electoral process in Burundi is free or fair when their interests are safe, if not they won’t.
The bottom line
The 2020 electoral proccess is showing particularities, but mainly revealing challenges in human rights and political scene management. The process has shown how Burundian people need strong institutions.
Will the new wave of leaders be able to fulfill their promises? One thing is sure, Burundi politics will not be boring for the next 7 years. Expectations are high, Burundians need more accountability.
Thanks for Reading!
Fabrice Iranzi,
Founder & Editor in Chief RegionWeek.com
IN THE REGION
SUDAN
A new study titled, “Sudan and Trade Integrity,” examining trade-related illicit financial flows in Sudan’s trade, crude oil and gold sectors published June 1st, finds considerable gaps in trade integrity and potential revenue losses of US$5.7 billion in global trade, US$279.4 million in trade in crude oil and US$575.2 million in trade in gold during the seven years covered in the report. The study was conducted by Global Financial Integrity (GFI), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, producing high-caliber analyses of illicit financial flows, advising developing country governments on effective policy solutions and promoting pragmatic transparency measures in the international financial system as a means to global development and security.
SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan's Minister of East African Affairs John Luk Jok died at his home in the capital Juba on Tuesday morning, local media reported. He was 68. Jok was appointed as the minister in March 2020 in line with a peace agreement that came into effect on February 22, 2020. He also served as minister of justice from July 2011 to March 2020. In a condolences message, the East African Community secretary general tweeted: “The EAC learned with great sadness of the death this morning of South Sudanese Minister John Luk Jok, a brilliant and energetic member of the EAC Council of Ministers. Our sincere condolences to his family, the government and the people of South Sudan.”
COMESA
Remittance flows to Sub Saharan African countries will drop by 23.1% from $48 billion in 2019 to $37 billion in 2020 in the wake of the Covid-19 economic crisis, according to the World Bank. Globally, the top remittance recipients’ countries, last year were, India ($79 bn), China ($67 bn), Mexico ($36 bn), the Philippines ($34 bn), and Egypt ($26.7 bn) among other countries.
In COMESA region, the leading recipients of remittances were Egypt (US$ 26,791 million), Kenya (US$ 2,819 million), Tunisia (US$ 1,912 million), DR Congo (US 1,823 million) and Zimbabwe (US$ 1,730). In terms of contribution of remittances to GDP, Zimbabwe led with 13.5%, Comoros (11.5%) and Egypt (8.2%).
Further, the World Bank estimates that foreign direct investment will drop by around 35% due to travel restrictions, disruption of international trade and decline in the stock prices of multinationals. Thus, diaspora remittances will remain crucial to many countries in the region.
RegionWeek is a Burundi-based media for a new generation of achievers in Africa, a platform devoted to chronicling the journey to Freedom and Empowerment.