Rwanda and Burundi make positive steps in easing tensions but challenges remain
RegionWeek Newsletter Vol III, Issue #119 | Saturday, September 5, 2020
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Dear RegionWeek Readers,
In two weeks, the developments observed between Burundi and Rwanda are encouraging. They open a window to end tensions between the two brotherly countries. The tensions were sparked by a controversial third term by former Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza in 2015 and a coup attempt that Gitega accused Rwanda of backing.
On 13 August 2020, a tripartite agreement between Burundi, Rwanda, and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) was reached for the repatriation of Burundian refugees in Rwanda. The tripartite meeting was the first meeting between Burundian and Rwandan officials and agreed that the first group of refugees will return on 27 August.
The tripartite was followed on 26 August by a surprise meeting between Burundi and Rwanda military intelligence officials in the border town of Nemba (Rwanda) to address issues that have affected security, trade, and movement along their border.
The meeting facilitated by the Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism, a regional military framework under the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) agreed to a mechanism to verify the counter-accusations within the ICGLR framework.
On 27 August, more than 500 refugees returned to Burundi from Rwanda to a warm welcome at the border from the Minister of Interior and the Ministry of Health. On behalf of the Burundian Government, the Minister of Interior, Gervais Ndirakobuca thanked the Government of Rwanda for hosting Burundian refugees and for facilitating their return.
Officials of the two countries have said that the next logical step would be bilateral dialogue because the ICGLR mechanism is very broad with other countries and interests and it can only work to a certain extent. Besides, Burundi and Rwanda almost share the same language.
Meanwhile, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi is planning to organize a meeting at the head of state level that will bring together the leaders of DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and Angola in the town of Goma (North Kivu province) in eastern DRC to address insecurity in the North and South Kivu province bordering the two countries. South Kivu in particular has become a battleground where the two countries back groups trying to neutralize their enemies.
READ ALSO: Why Burundi and Rwanda won’t normalize relations anytime soon?
Anti Peace Forces
Burundi’s President Evariste Ndayishimiye and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame continue to demonstrate leadership and should be encouraged to build on this momentum to rapidly normalize the relationship between the two countries because there are forces in both countries actively pushing in opposite directions. These forces are composed of rebels, war entrepreneurs, tribalists, and some countries in the region.
They are active on social media spreading misinformation, hate-filled messages but they are also plotting to create insecurity in Rwanda and Burundi using each other’s territory.
Rebels
The military wing of a coalition of Rwandan opposition groups calling itself the “Platform Five,” or P5 that was reportedly supported by some powerful forces in Burundi during former President Pierre Nkurunziza’s reign has been plotting to use Burundi territory to launch attacks against Rwanda. Kayumba Nyamwasa leads the P5 military forces. The P5 and their patrons in Burundi know that time is not on their side and they must disrupt any attempt by the two countries to normalize relations.
A Burundian rebel group, RED Tabara operating in eastern Congo reportedly supported by Rwanda has also carried out attacks recently inside Burundi in the provinces of Rumonge, Bujumbura Rurale, and Bubanza. Their objective is to make sure that the regime in Gitega remains at loggerheads with Kigali and to create a sense of insecurity to prevent refugees from returning home.
War entrepreneurs
Then there are the war entrepreneurs who have benefited from the crisis between the two countries. In Rwanda, some individuals in association with opponents of Gitega have benefited from the business of refugees and run radio and TV stations as opposed to the government.
In Burundi, a number of people have benefited from the largesse of Tribert Rujugiro, a Rwandan tycoon who is opposed to the regime in Kigali and who owns a cement factory and other businesses in the country. He is believed to be the Godfather and financier of the P5 group.
Hate ideologists
There is a third category and this one is more dangerous. It’s driven by hate ideology. Some are in the open while others are underground. These are the tribalists. Burundi and Rwanda share the same ethnic makeup of Hutu, Tutsi, and Twa. The ruling CNDD FDD in Burundi is a former Hutu rebel movement that fought against a former Tutsi dominated regime in the country.
Hutu extremists in Burundi see in Rwanda as a country dominated by ethnic Tutsis and are convinced that Rwanda will not rest until there is a Tutsi regime in Burundi. The Hutu opposition in Rwanda some responsible for the genocide against the Tutsi fuels these dangerous beliefs on social media on a daily basis to scare the Hutus population in Burundi.
In Rwanda, the ruling RPF is a former Tutsi rebellion that ended the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi perpetrated by the former Hutu dominated regime in Kigali.
Extremists in Rwanda see in the Hutus in power in Burundi individuals who share the same ideology as the Rwandan Hutus who perpetrated the genocide against the Tutsis. Similarly, Burundian Tutsis extremists some who fled to Rwanda and in the diaspora consistently fuel this narrative.
There is not a single ethnic group that is monolithic yet these extremists prey on fears. These extremists are a minority in both countries but they are dangerous for both regimes. They will attempt to sabotage any efforts to reconcile the two countries.
The final category is countries in the region who enjoy the spat between the two countries to either isolate Burundi further, secure business deals or create a narrative that Rwanda is a problem in the region.
The bottom line
The leaders of Burundi and Rwanda must avoid manipulation and seek to normalize relations that will increase trade, social and economic development in a region that needs more trade than confrontation in a time of a pandemic. The only people that benefit from a divided Africa are those that benefit from our natural resources.
Thanks for reading!
Fabrice Iranzi, RegionWeek.com
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